TROUBLE AFOOT...HOW DO WE HANDLE IT?

So Bush voters thought his re-election would send a message to the rest of the world that would ultimately make us safer, while anti-Bush voters believed that ousting Bush would make us more secure. A quick spin around the world says that no one was right; the world is in flux regardless of current U.S. policy. Consider the bad:

-Unless you’re an idealistic ostrich, it’s fairly obvious that Iran is trying to move towards a nuclear arsenal. Did they speed the program up because of U.S. involvement in Iraq? Perhaps, but except for the tunnel-visioned who blame everything on Bush, the history of their nuclear program says that this was going to happen regardless of U.S. policy.

-Russia is trying to re-exert its power in the region, as evidenced by the Ukranian election. Couple that with the Chechnyan conflicts and the U.S./European/Soviet history, and it’s pretty tough policy figuring out how to deal with the Russians.

-Al-Qaeda has likely been weakened, but is far from being torn asunder.

And, consider the good news:

-It’s early, but Palestinian leaders seem to be softening their stance towards Israel since the death of Yasser Arafat. Recently, Abbas personally has called for Palestinian media to quit broadcasting and publishing anti-Jewish pieces.

-Kofi Annan is finally being exposed for the trough-feeding bureaucrat that many people have suspected him to be, and his leadership is perhaps about to end. If that happens, a strong leader at the U.N. could actually give that organization one more shot at being something other than a debating body that squanders and bleeds Western money.

-Say what you will about Bush, but the Fallujah offensive in Iraq is a smart moved that should have been done a long time ago. We’re not looking at the end of the insurgency, but the Arab community has a long, long history of only responding to force. It’s time we apply a bit more of it, and by winning the election Bush has some time to use it.

The future could take a million different paths. However, here are some realistic and credible things I believe we can do as a nation to insure that we head down the right one:

-Err on the side of military pressure in Iraq. Again, Arab culture has historically responded to force. Don’t think of Al-Qaeda, Palestine and Iran with American and European values. To them, diplomacy is a sign of weakness; just witness Yasser Arafat turning down the Palestinian homeland, the assassination of Anwar Sadat after the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, and miles of history in the brutality of those who ascend to leadership in the Arab world (Saddam Hussein, the Shah of Iran, King Farouk, the Ottoman Empire, and Syria's Hafiz Assad of Syria’s, just to name a few in the 20th century). These are people who respect little other than the big stick. Use it.

-Recognize Russia as an opponent, but not an enemy. Russia has centuries as a powerful nation, which is something the U.S. cannot relate to. (We could perhaps counsel England for some insights.) Neither the Russian people nor their leadership has taken kindly to their reduced role in the world, and we’re starting to see them play a heavy hand in their own region. If left unchecked they will start doing the same on a wider scale.

This is a delicate situation. Russia will be a world player just due to the size and population of their nation. Throw in their history and you have a country that will be willing to fight to regain supremacy for years, decades, or even centuries. We need to treat the Russians as you would a colleague in the same situation; with a mixture of deference, camaraderie, and a firm understanding of both the power you hold and how to use it without waving it in their face. Lots of neo-con haters have their concerns misplaced. The arrogance this administration is capable of will actually work well vs. the Middle East. Russia, however, is a different story. Perhaps Bush recognizes this, which is why he refers to Vladimir Putin as his friend. It will take a long, concerted effort, but we can make Russia our friend as well if they see us as allies on the world stage for the long haul. Not an easy proposition, but not impossible, either.

-China is Russia times 10. And the Chinese seem to have a way of “doing business” that would make the most ruthless capitalist blush. Take that into account, and add in their history: China was the most innovative culture for 1000 years before being decimated by the upstart Europeans and by internal problems (drugs, corrupt government); the tentatively re-built government was torn asunder by WWII; they underwent a short revival of sorts under a brutal Communist regime; they are now embracing their own hybrid form of government again, a quasi capitalist-socialist mix.

Going back to the “colleague” analogy above, what would you do with a business associate who had built a successful company, was ousted, had a new company that failed, and was now going back to the old company to revive it? (See: Steve Jobs & Apple.) You would greet this person with reverence, but also with a certain amount of skepticism in both your policy and your tone of voice. This isn't easy, because China can bluster like Arabs (as does North Korea), but in reality they are still re-finding their feet. But it's the right course. We shouldn't thwart the Chinese from re-finding their footing, but we don’t need to help them either. Make it known that we aren't interfering, and stand back while they make mistakes, which they will. Just look at how their handling their own AIDS epidemic.

It doesn’t look to me like the world is coming to an end, but the USA, like the rest of the globe, is at a crossroads. We have the mantle of supremacy at the moment; how we deal with the other world players will determine whether we keep that mantle in the next 20-50 years. I would like to know what those of you out in blog-land think. Comment below or e-mail me.