NOT SO FAST

Beware the easy prognostications of "here come the Democrats" because one can look to Kentucky, Virginia, and Indianapolis and see a trend. And it’s not necessarily the trend that the Dems think they see, nor the trend the GOPers think they see.

The trend in all probability is “throw the bums out, regardless of affiliation.”

See, it doesn’t matter what side of the aisle you hail from. If an incumbent's constituents are the least bit unsettled the signs are saying that the bar is much lower than normal to bounce them from office. What I don't see is a mandate for Democrats to re-take power, nor an “all-clear” signal for Republicans that a significant slice of the electorate is still in their camp. The electorate as a whole is very dissatisfied, and if you appear to be part of the problem, regardless of party, you are in deep doo-doo.

Indianapolis is a great case study. Marion County has been becoming increasingly Democratic for the past 15 years to the point where it was the only county in Indiana to vote for Kerry in 2004. But a relative unknown and underfunded Republican upset Bart Peterson, 2-term Democratic mayor, the City-County Council turned majority Republican, and the large suburb of Lawrence ousted its Democratic mayor.

I don’t mean to suggest that this possible groundswell doesn’t favor Democrats, but that's only in places where they don't currently hold office AND there is an incumbent. All bets are off in races where the incumbent isn't running. This feels like the same simmering disappointment that turned into voter anger in both 1976 and 1980. And its roots are not just Iraq or worries about the economy. The general sense is that the country is foundering and people are wanting a clear direction.

In other words, don’t be so sure that any one of us knows the outcome of any race, especially the presidency. And don’t rule out a third party candidate suddenly coming on full force after the Dem & GOP candidates are known.