NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTION - BLOG MORE

It’s amazing how much havoc the holidays can wreak on your everyday routines. ‘Tis way past time to get back to my regular postings.

Watching a new Indiana state administration (Mitch Daniels) and a returning national administration (George W. Bush) already has me looking ahead to 2008. Some early predictions:

-Hillary Clinton is unelectable. If the Democrats wish to re-take the White House they must find someone who can win in the Republican strongholds, like Evan Bayh. I must say though, even being from Indiana, there is something about Bayh that makes me question whether he’s actually presidential material. But he is a Democrat who can win in normally Republican country. Unlike John Edwards, who had zero influence even in his own home state (as was also the case with Al Gore), Bayh would likely take Indiana and swing Ohio over to the Democrats, which would almost assuredly win the race.

-The game is no different for Republicans, even with the apparent success in the last election. The country is almost white-knuckling over how conservative it’s become. A centrist candidate would have wiped the mat with Bush, and only the provincialism of the Democrats kept any real candidates from even getting into the game. It will take a Republican who can grab the center. Since I don’t believe that John McCain will actually get the financial support from the GOP coffers (for lots of obvious reasons), look for someone like Rudy Giuliani. If Giuliani merely holds the current “red states” and takes New York out of the Dems column (which he would) it would a 62-point electoral vote swing…a landslide. One downside of Giuliani: I doubt that he has national coattails.

In my home state of Indiana, big changes are afoot. Mitch Daniels has come in with the same vigor and mandate for change as Ronald Reagan did some 24 years ago. The difference in Daniels case is that he must break the pattern of behavior of Indiana residents borne out over the past 200 years: provincialism, distrust of outsiders, resistance to new industries, and self-deprecation. (Or, to use one phrase, Hayseed Hoosierism.) I have no doubt that he can do it, though, as I watched Evan Bayh shift the mindset for 8 years, only to be undone by the tragically late-but-still-incompetent good-ole-boy Frank O’Bannon. For those outside of Indiana this might be a sideshow for you to watch. If Daniels is able to re-make the economy of this state, as I believe he will, it will mold new-style Republicans out of previously staunch Democratic areas and industries. This, in turn, will catch the attention of the GOP and become a model for economic and political growth across the country. IF…Daniels is successful.

On a personal side note, I met now-embattled Ohio Republican Ken Blackwell some 20 years ago. My stepfather was the chair of a Cincinnati community cable TV company, and Blackwell and Jerry Springer (yes, the Jerry Springer) came to this very small gathering to preside over their awards show, and I'm sure they weren't compensated for their time. If they were, it couldn't have been much. I found them both to be personable and very giving of their time. This from two politicians on opposite sides of the aisle who were then the most recent Cincinnati ex-mayors. I have no moral or conclusion to the story, other than to be fascinated by the paths their lives have since taken.

Go Colts.