GLOAT, GLOAT, GLOAT, GLOAT

How could I predict more correctly?

-The youth vote: non-existent. Unless you think that 17% of registered voters 18-30 turning out is significant. Which Jehme Kwausfoeuo1ruroeu, or whatever the leader's name of "Rock the Vote" is, apparently believes. That's fine, keep investing your time and justifying your existence. And while you're at it, why don't you make your fortune in the lottery, since that's equally likely?

-Say it with me: which state was down to the wire in deciding the election? A hint: it's round on both sides and high in the middle....

-Despite the ridiculous media hype at the beginning of yesterday evening, were there any surprises in where the states fell? Noooooooo.

-Uh...where is New Hampshire? 24 hours after the polls closed it's too close to call. See last blog posting.

As I gloat on my predictions (which I am, at least today), why was I able to be successful? Luck? Stupid coincidence? Knowing that the Redskins now play in Maryland, not D.C.? I think it's because I listen less to spin and actually read, watch and digest a bunch of different info from a wide array of sources. I don't just listen to what I wish to believe or sources that tell me what I want to hear. And some of that are the people that read this blog.

As promised, what occurred while I worked the polls in Middle Earth (Indiana) yesterday:

4:10 The alarm goes off. Part of my brain is excited. A larger part simply says “crap.”

5:00 The Precinct Inspector, the Republican Judge and Republican Clerk were already there. We start setting up the books, turning on the voting machines and generally getting ready.

5:43 The first voter shows up, well ahead of the opening of the polls. He makes it clear that he wants to be first to vote. Only 3-4 minutes later, a line starts forming behind him. The Inspector says this is normal.

6:00 The polls open on time and the line stretches 50 feet into the lobby. The inspector now says that's unusual. I make the mistake of passing out flyers to an already assembled crowd. It’s apparent that these people don’t need help. Not knowing what else to do, I pass out flyers until I run out and vow that I won’t be doing that again for a while.

6:15 Even though it’s raining, the line stretches all the way outside. Now the Inspector acknowledges that’s abnormally heavy. This could be interesting.

6:20 An African-American woman comes up to me to question whether I was able to be passing out flyers. I show her evidence that I was within the rules and assure her that I am very sensitive to the rules. She seems to believe me. Nonetheless, note to self…don’t pass out flyers. It makes me uncomfortable in the first place, I'm not a "true believer," and I'd rather not be partisan.

6:25 The Democratic Clerk finally shows up, allowing the Democratic Judge to quit working the poll book and actually do her regular job of observing. It’s good to note that people on both sides know each other and are friendly, even though they’re working for opposite parties. The Centrist Dude’s heart is filled with hope.

6:35 My Ward Chairman, who is also running for Township Board, stops by to say hello.

7:12 The lines are still streaming out the door. People are already asking “what if it’s 6pm and you’re in line to vote?” Someone observes that they’re voting at about 100 people an hour (they may have been in line that long, I suppose). Yikes...that’s only 1200 people in a 1400 people district. Hope they don’t all show up late.

8:05 The official machine counts show that 194 people have voted. There have been 2 people who wanted to vote that weren’t in the poll book. The 2nd one is a local on-air reporter from Channel 6, Doug Harvey, who appears to be wanting trouble. I have found out that he reported from here after the primaries because this was one of the districts (of many) that ran out of ballots. Today, he didn’t want to wait for his problem to be resolved, instead leaving in a huff to call Doris Ann Sadler, the Marion County Secretary. My take is that he is purposely angling for a story to report on how “disorganized” the election is being run. What an ass.

9:20 The Democratic Judge asks if we can set up more voting booths. I set a couple up to move the total number of booths up to 8.

8:35 I call my Ward Chairman to explain what transpired with the TV reporter. He calls back later to say that everything was taken care of. Apparently he was able to diffuse the problem at the Election Board by alerting them to what really happened. Good.

9:02 I get a machine vote count; we pulled 130 last hour, so the extra booths are speeding things up. A weirdo phenomenon: this district has way, way more people with A-M than N-Z. This is a problem, because the poll books are alphabetically broken down this way, and the lines are really long for A-M.

10:00 120 votes processed last hour. A quick count of this district shows 1482 registered voters, so over a quarter have already voted. There have been 3 people turned away for not being in the poll book, and 1 person who wasn’t in the book but proved his eligibility to vote.

10:30 The line continues to extend outside. Amazing.

10:40 I happen to be outside as Mitch Daniel’s RV pulls up. (Mitch is running for governor of Indiana against incumbent Democrat Joe Kernan). I get to at least introduce myself & shake his hand. He’s got this Southern Indiana lilt he’s picked up while campaigning. I’ll be curious to see how long it lasts if he’s elected.

10:46 The absentee ballots arrive. There are 92 in one stack, 4 in one, 41 in another, and one by itself.

11:00 A total of 557 have voted, plus the 138 absentees for a total of 695 (barring duplications in the absentees).

12:05 It’s slowed down enough for the Centrist Dude to leave, pick up the Conservative Wife and vote in our district.

12:50 Coming back, things have actually slowed down. Maybe the clerks & inspector can actually get some of the absentee ballots caught up so that we’re not here until 8:00.

1:30 By comparison, things have really slowed down. Of course, since over 60% of the district has voted it can only be so heavy from here on out, at least until that expected final rush.

3:00 Voting machine tally is 863. With absentees we’re at 1001.

4:00 The tallies keep climbing; machines are now at 948. The final rush should start sometime in this hour. The good news is that the inspector & the clerks are getting the absentee ballots sorted & ready to tally.

5:12 The inspector & I have finished putting all the absentee ballots through the machines. Two provisional ballots were accidentally sent to us and 2 ballots were improperly marked so the machine can’t read them, but are pretty obvious as to what the votes were meant to be. Not my department to deal with. We’re now at a total of 1160 out of approximately 1480 registered district voters. We may not have a late rush at all.

If the absentees are any indicator, Evan Bayh and Mitch Daniels are both going to win handily. Evan’s no surprise, and I expect Daniels to win, but there are a surprising number of otherwise straight Democratic voters who are splitting their ticket for Daniels.

5:50 Miraculously, there is no one late; they have all come here early. We’re already more than halfway broken down.

7:10 Leaving to go pick up the C.W., who is already spelling gloom & doom for Bush because she’s listening to the NBC reporters. Apparently they’re rubbing their hands in glee over the downtrodden people in the Bush camp and calling this for Kerry. I am unconvinced.

7:40 forward - We go to the "victory party," which turns out to actually be somewhat victorious, mostly because Mitch Daniels wins by a fairly substantial margin. As I suspected, the presidential race is not breaking down the way the media wants it to, but is instead breaking the way the Centrist Dude saw it in the first place. We left to come home & watch the rest of the returns some time ago. Around 11:30 I could see that Bush is going to win: he's taken Florida and is going to take Ohio, although no one wants to admit it. We'll get up tomorrow & see how things have shaken out. Hopefully, Kerry isn't stupid enough to drag this out legally for a battle he'll end up losing anyway.

The Liberal New Hampshire Uncle owes me a 6-pack.