BOLD ELECTION PREDICTIONS

Since this is likely my last column before the election, I’ll make some bold prognostications now:

1) Despite hype to the contrary, the 20-somethings who only have cell phones will not decide this election. Young people were more motivated than ever in the late 60s & early 70s and they still didn’t get out and vote. Eligible 18-30 year old voters have consistently fallen from 50% in 1972 to less than one-third in 2000. They didn’t swing an election then, and they won’t now.

2) Ohio will be this year’s Florida, as both candidates realize that they will likely have to win that state to win the election. Not to say that Florida won’t be close, but it looks like it will go for Bush in a narrow but decisive enough margin to avoid the debacle of 4 years ago. Ohio, on the other hand, appears to be so close that it may come down to some obscure county that’s working with an abacus to tally their absentee votes.

3) There won’t be any big surprises as to where states fall, contrary to what many people are predicting. In other words, Connecticut isn’t going to go for Bush and Indiana isn’t going to go for Kerry.

4) If you’re watching the returns and looking for an early indicator, keep your eye on New Hampshire. The state will probably go for Kerry, but if Bush wins it again, that spells real trouble for the Dems. Likewise, if Kerry wins NH by 8 or more percentage points (i.e., 54%-46%) an alarm should sound for the GOP.

5) Since I’ve been badgering others for their opinions for a few weeks now, here is how I see it falling:

Since April, it’s seemed that this has been Bush’s race to lose, not Kerry’s to win. Most of the vitriol and anger towards Bush has been from young people and those who are traditionally Democrats to begin with. This is not a large enough voting bloc to oust Bush by themselves, even if they turn out in record numbers. Therefore, they must get swing voters to rally to their cause; one could say that ultimately this is the only voting bloc that matters. And it doesn't seem like the middle is falling in any direction. When that happens, take the incumbent.

Bush wins the popular vote, the states other than New Hampshire, New Mexico and possibly Iowa fall where they were in 2000, and Bush wins the election by a slightly greater margin than in 2000 with an electoral tally of 291-247. But, it's tenuous: if Ohio goes to Kerry, this swings the EC to 271-267, which is still a Bush win; however, it's also a sign there will be another state (i.e., Colorado) that will also switch from Republican to Democratic and change the outcome in favor of Kerry.

I’ll be reporting from the Republican HQ here in Indy sometime later this week. Should be fascinating, regardless of the results.