THE SHIFT THAT IS STUCK IN NEUTRAL

Over the years, I have received a lot of astute political gems from the Liberal-In-Denial Dad, even if they didn’t seem to sparkle at the time. My favorite recent one was, a week or so prior to the 2000 election, he predicted that whoever won Florida would win the White House.

One of his observations, made somewhere in the late 70s, was that the country’s views were historically like a pendulum, swinging politically from left to right on roughly a 40-year cycle. So, about every 20 years the U.S. hits a new point on the pendulum: conservative, then 20 years later centrist, 20 years later liberal, 20 years later back to the center, etc. The reason for this is that whichever side was in power would focus on one set of issues while ignoring those they didn’t deem important. When the country felt that the neglect on certain issues became too great, the other side would gradually take over until the country became uncomfortable with their agenda, and so on. And this has for the most part proven to be true. Look at the last century: 1900 the pendulum was centrist, 1920 swinging to the right, 1940 swinging back to the center, 1960 swinging to the left, 1980 back to the center.

Note that this is what state the country is in, not the candidate that was elected. Roosevelt, while a liberal, was elected as a reaction to the mostly Republican policies of the past 20 years. Reagan was elected as a reaction to the mostly Democratic policies of the past 20 years. They were, in effect, the result of the shift taking place.

If this trend held, then somewhere around 2000 would be when we would have moved as far right as the center would allow, and would now be shifting back. But this hasn’t happened, at least not yet. So you have to ask: is the L-I-D Dad wrong or is there something else at work? I think he’s still correct, but 3 things have occurred to make this pendulum turn slower than it has historically:

1) The liberal left doesn’t represent the middle. The political shift has always occurred because the extreme positions of the ruling party causes them to lose touch with the center, which starts the pendulum back. The Republicans have done their part. They’re proposing a gay marriage amendment, they’re blurring the lines between separation of church and state and they’re pre-emptively striking nations in Neo-Conservative nation building. But for whatever reason, the Democrats have stopped being the party of the little guy. Instead, they're viewed by many as the party of the liberal elites, who have put up a candidate that looks and sounds just like them. This is especially maddening to the middle, because those in it are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the right.

2) Debates, whether presidential or pundit, are increasingly about attacking people's core beliefs. Liberals and conservatives alike aren't just debating issues, they're attacking how people choose to live their lives. This doesn't do anything to make the middle comfortable, but when both sides are attacking core beliefs it simply divides the middle as well as those who would be polarized to begin with.

3) We have become trained to go for style over substance. This is what people are saying when they are choosing their candidate: "Kerry looks better in debates." "Bush is more presidential." "Kerry sounds more in control." "Bush comes across as a real guy." Is anyone listening to what actually is coming out of our candidates mouths? We're not choosing Mr. America, we're choosing our nation's leader. At some point we have to re-train ourselves to see the window dressing for what it is. Unfortunately, until we do we’re not going to get real choices, because why would a major party put up a person with a real plan when we're willing to vote for a right-sounding/looking/speaking puppet with no substance? It's much easier to find that guy than someone with real credentials.

The country is ready for a shift because the conservative movement has now gone uncomfortably right; people feel it and want to vote against it. But the liberal faction is giving the country an unpalatable alternative of hedonisitic “do-as-you-please” social agendas, “we’re against your way of life Mr. & Mrs. Joe Average” rhetoric, and “we know best how to take care of you because you can’t care for yourself” socialism. The middle is as uncomfortable with this as they are with the conservatives.

If the Democrats can ever figure out that "it's the candidate, stupid" they can dominate for the next 20 years or so. Give the populous a candidate that wants a shift back to inclusiveness, helping the little guy, and putting a gentler face on America. But, if they keep serving up the likes of Kerry, Hillary and Pelosi, there is nothing to stop the rightward shift from being the lesser of two evils. And in the long run, that can be very dangerous indeed.