KERRY'S LAST STAND

John Kerry has one last chance to control his own destiny in the first Presidential debate later tonight. By now it's clear to all but only the most optimistic supporter that Kerry is both behind and in big trouble. (And for those of you that think differently, call me: I have a fresh round of swampland to sell you in Florida.) But he has one last chance to change the momentum with a big victory in the first Presidential debate tonight. Make no mistake: it has to be tonight, because the viewership will go way down for any future debates, absentee votes are being cast, and if there's no shift by tomorrow there will simply not be enough voters left to sway.

Because of this, Kerry can’t go into tonight to just “win” the debate any more than an up-and-coming heavyweight boxer can expect to win a decision in a closely-fought contest. Human nature works against him in several ways:

1) The majority of voters have made up their minds, and once people make a decision they tend to look for things to reinforce it, not change it.

2) The few remaining undecided and “leaning” voters know what they’re getting with Bush. If they hated him, they would already be in the Kerry camp. So they might as well be assumed to actually be leaning towards Bush. If it’s a tie in their minds, that’s where their votes will go.

3) Regardless of the reason, Kerry’s negative numbers are almost as high as Bush’s. He isn't going to get someone’s vote because they like him personally, as might happen with John Edwards. (Though for the life of me I can’t understand why Edwards gets such high likeability ratings.)

So if I were on Kerry’s coaching staff, here’s the gameplan that I would draw up:

-Keep it simple. If you feel like you need to explain the nuances of your answer, it’s a bad answer.

-Forget about Vietnam. The people who can’t let Vietnam go have already made up their minds. No one else cares, nor will they vote for or against you based on what you or Bush did in Vietnam.

-Do not underestimate your opponent. George Bush is already taking the Lou Holtz strategy by telling everyone what a great debater you are, and how he hopes to somehow hold his own. Don’t believe it. Bush may not be a classic debater, but he’s a clever one. He’s fooled a lot of people into thinking he’s a dumb ass. He’s not.

-Outline your plan for Iraq. Not a wish list, and not some diatribe that conjures up memories of Hillary Clinton's health care plan. Right now, there is not one person in this country who has an inkling on what you plan to do. Take a cue from the RNC: Bush outlined a plan for his second term. He didn’t give every specific detail about how it would be accomplished, but it did not come off as pie-in-the-sky either. (Except for how to pay for it.) This is the foreign policy debate! If you can’t articulate an Iraq plan that Joe and Mary Beer Can will be able to grasp you will be headed for the south end of a landslide.

Oh, and by the way, I don’t think his handlers appear smart enough to make leaps this basic and necessary. To use an NFL analogy, Kerry is being coached by the equivalent staff of Norv Turner, Dave Wanndstadt, Marty Morninwheg and Dennis Erickson. Too bad he’s Jay Fiedler instead of Joe Montana.