PLATFORMS AND PERCEPTIONS

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I downloaded the Republican Party platform yesterday to read it undiluted by spin from talk radio or Big Media. Can you believe it's 92 pages long? Yikes! One would think that the party that calls itself pro-business would write it like a business plan, complete with an Executive Summary. Oh, no...you have to read the entire 92 pages to find out what the hell they're trying to say. Don't these people realize that no one in America is going to slough through that? They're guaranteeing that their written message will be heard by most people AFTER it's been spun, and probably by the the Republican's adversaries. (NOTE: If anyone's interested, I can e-mail you copies of both party platforms.) So this leaves the positive delivering of each party's message to the presidential candidates.

For all of the talk about how divisive George W. Bush has been, think of the first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln. Now, we all think of this man as one of, if not the greatest American President. But he ran almost as a one-issue candidate (the legal abolishment of slavery), and we all know the results. Let's say that George Bush ran as a one-issue candidate: pick one. How divisive would that be? And would he have any hope of winning? Doubtful. But Lincoln did win...with about 40% of the popular vote, although he had the majority of the 4 candidates. Still, Lincoln articulated a message and it resonated. Maybe a bit too much, but it resonated. And in the face of imminent Civil War he never backed down from his beliefs.

40 years ago Lyndon Johnson tried to be all things to all people. Remember hearing (or reading) his "guns and butter" talks, as in "we can have both"? 40 years later, who can tell me what Johnson stood for? He was bombing the hell out of Hanoi, yet building urban housing in the inner cities. He acted like he was still Senate Majority Leader, and appeased Republicans regulary to get social programs through, which doesn't really work when you're the President. He compromised, he waffled, all the while increasing taxes to pay for everything? This, of course, cost him the presidency and cost America 15 years of economic chaos.

I'm not suggesting that politics and public policy are simple, but the presidential candidates who can give their view in clear, simple terms are going to almost always defeat those who can't articulate their vision and think that things are too complex to lay it out in understandable terms. Would Johnson have beat Goldwater if Kennedy hadn't been assassinated? I seriously doubt it. Ronald Reagan would have assuredly been the Republican nominee in 1976 had Watergate not put Gerald Ford in the White House. Would Jimmy Carter have beat him then, or would Carter have even been the nominee? Again, highly doubtful.

Bill Clinton might be a Rhodes Scholar, but he was also able to articulate his views clearly and concisely. Likewise Ronald Reagan. Say what you will about Nixon, but you knew where he stood on issues. And as divisive as he was, he also is the proud owner of the biggest landslide in presidential history.

Americans currently know where Bush stands on most everything and can sum him up in a few words, even if they're choice. John Kerry completely missed the chance to lay out his agenda. Anything he does now will be seen as reactionary. Could it actually be that he has no clear vision? My liberal friends and relatives keep telling me he does, but the same drum has been beating for months: what is Kerry's vision?

As a final statement, The Liberal Dad (who is one of the smartest people I know when it comes to predicting politics) told the Centrist Dude 2 months ago that the "bounce" after the conventions would tell the tale. Well, Kerry got zero bounce, which Big Media spun as "everyone's already made up their minds." What will their spin be when GWB gets a 4-5 point bounce?

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